Wednesday, March 25, 2015

"Is Anthropocene a result of lack of systemic thinking in mankind?"

" If the bee disappeared off the surface of the globe , then man would have only four years of life left. No more bees , no more pollination , no more animals , no more man."
-Albert Einstein (Goodreads.com)

This one statement by Einstein sums up everything I am going to discuss about Anthropocene. We all have studied Darwin's theory of Evolution , but not many people think about  concepts like how evolution can lead to extinction. General Systems theory also explains the logic behind evolution using concepts centralization & decentralization and negative entropy. If you look at any side effects of modernization and urbanization such a global warming , raise in sea level , pollution , nuclear waste disposal suggest a destructive phenomenon which leads to extinction of many species presently and may even lead to the extinction of mankind.
Anthropocene:
            In the year 2000 , Paul Crutzen  , a Dutch Nobel Prize winning atmospheric chemist and Eugene Stoermer , a biologist suggested that a new geological epoch has begun and it was named Anthropocene. The human influence on the global environment has become so massive and significant that it became a geological force by itself which can influence the functioning of earth. Some geologist and environmental scientist argue that Anthropocene started with the Neolithic Revolution which marked the beginning of agriculture and farming  where in man started to exploit earth while a majority of them consider that it began with the Industrial Revolution in the mid 1800 and has grown exponentially since the World War 2 during which advancements in technology started growing exponentially. Closely associated with Anthropocene is great mass extinction considered as the sixth biggest in the history of earth created by us. The usage of this term is informal at the moment but  (WILL STEFFEN, 2011).

Industrial Revolution a Systemic Growth and Earth System: 
            Bertalanffy  while presenting the future in system-theoretical aspect says that " there are two factors in which our civilization is unique in comparison to those that perished in the past. One is the technical development which permits a control of nature never before achieved and would open a way to alleviate hunger, disease etc. to which humanity was previously exposed. The other factor is the global nature of our civilization. previous ones were limited by geographical boundaries , and comprised only limited group of human beings." (Bertalanffy, 1968).He also predicts that the struggle  for power will lead to universal atomic devastation and at this point we can say that the prediction is true as we all know that third world war if at all arises will be atomic in nature.                     Before understanding about what happened during Industrial Revolution , we need to look at the interaction between human system and earth from a point where it began. It all started a some million years ago when humans invented and mastered the art of making tools and weapons out of stones , then we invented fire and these activities changed the way we interact with nature. Over time we developed civilizations and continued to manipulate environment. Then with Neolithic Revolution , we started cultivation and farming which involved clearing of forest land and conversion of land to farms. These activities oh hunting , farming and taming of animals is the start of the current day bio-diversity imbalance. (WILL STEFFEN, 2011)
              Much later in early 900AD , we developed the use of fossil fuels but not exactly in the form we use today. Then comes industrial revolution in 1700's followed by thermo-industrial revolution of the 19th century. This increased the demand for fossil fuels and resulted in expansion of civilizations which in turn lead to a demand of usable land which was made available by cutting down forests adding to the depleting bio-diversity. The use of these fossil flues lead to pollution and release of green house gases into environment. (WILL STEFFEN, 2011)
            Then comes the era of Great Acceleration which is the post World War 2 era which showed a exponential trend in growth and urbanization. Urbanization resulted in people migrating towards cities and becoming industrial work force by abandoning agriculture which by this time was one of the major source of maintaining balance of green house gases and this resulting in further increase of CO2 and other gases in addition to that because of industrial growth. A simple yet significant statistical figure showing the advent of new epoch is the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide which in December 2014 reached 399ppm by volume , much above the standard mean level of Holocene ( which is still officially the epoch we are in). (WILL STEFFEN, 2011) (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 2015)
            This growth can be explained by considering human eco system/society as an open system and development and technological advancement are a result of neg-entropy and also as a mechanism to establish hierarchy and order with in this system. But while considering ourselves as a system and growing , we never realized that we were subsystem of a bigger system called "The Earth System" , which in turn is a part of System called Universe. This lack of systemic thinking in interacting with the nature may lead to fatal consequences.
            The Earth System consists of all the interacting physical , chemical, ecological and biological entities and processes of our planet earth. Even the natural processes controlling the atmosphere and the geological tectonic forces acting inside and many such complex processes are included in this Earth System. (Anthropocene.info)
            Until the recent Great Acceleration , our actions which were influencing the Earth System  didn't raise alarming concerns. This may be because of our failure to understand the feedback mechanism between the Human System and The Earth System. We never completely understood the change process The Earth System undergoes in order to attain equilibrium which will result in the Mass extinction of species. We never realized that we can be the species which faces extinction in the next mass extinction process  which is most likely under process in the form of Anthropocene.

Need for a Sustainable Systemic Governance
            From the discussion presented above , we can understand that we failed to understand systemic interactions with the earth system. Now that we have realized this , it becomes our duty to design effective systemic governance in the Anthropocene era. There is a need for international organizations which will work beyond borders in understanding this feedback mechanism and control the consequences.  At the moment , United Nations and few other organizations are working in this regard. Understanding this urgency , The International Society for the Systems Sciences also set the theme of their 59th General  meeting being held at Germany in  August as " Governing the Anthropocene: the greatest challenge for systems thinking in practice?". (ISSS) .Let us contribute our part in making this world a sustainable place for mankind.

Is it a  question worth asking

            The proposed question poses a discussion about a topic which is one of the major problems the world today is facing and also encourages us to analyze the need to think systematically in our day to day life. This systems thinking might influence people in finding solutions to some unanswered questions.